Last major survey on the Latino electorate presents one of the most comprehensive looks on how swing state Latino voters view the presidential candidates and the top issues — cost of living, reproductive rights, gun control, and climate change, among others — motivating them to vote
Philadelphia, PA – With the election a few weeks away, two of the nation’s premier Latino organizations, Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Foundation, unveiled the results of a new poll of Latino voters in the key battleground states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. The poll revealed that in our nations’ swing states, the Latino electorate remains motivated to vote, with higher enthusiasm to vote in some key states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The poll, which BSP Research conducted from October 2 – 10, surveyed 1,900 Latino voters across key states, which tells the most accurate story about Latino voter engagement in 2024. Unlike other national surveys, this poll features a large sample of 1,900 Latino voters, offered in Spanish or English, and matched to the known Latino demographics of registered voters.
The poll results suggest that Latino voter enthusiasm and engagement remains high with 71% of Latino voters reporting that they plan to vote in this election and 74% say they are following news and information about the election closely. What’s more, the poll shows for the first time this cycle, a clear majority (64%) of Latinos in battleground states are reporting contact with campaigns and Latino civic organizations to encourage their vote.
The poll finds that Kamala Harris continues to maintain more than a 25-point lead among Latinos in the key presidential battleground states and that on key policy issues, a clear majority of Latinos state they trust Harris more than Trump on issues such as health care, reproductive rights, immigration reform, bringing down costs, climate change, and gun violence.
While much has been made in the media of Latinos flirting with the Republican Party, this poll finds no evidence of Latino ideological shift when it comes to policy issues. In fact, Latinos state by a 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 margin that they support progressive policy issues to allow women reproductive freedom, to ban assault rifles, to increase regulations to tackle climate change, to increase taxes on corporations and billionaires, to provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and to support full marriage equality for LGBTQ Americans. Indeed, on policy issues, the Latino community states they are looking for a federal government to advance equality and protect their rights and freedoms.
“This new poll provides crucial insight into Latino voters in battleground states across the country as they prepare to head to the ballot box and shape the outcome of the 2024 election through their votes,” said Frankie Miranda, President and CEO of Hispanic Federation. “Latinos are emerging as a decisive voting bloc in many of the nation’s most competitive battleground states, and it’s essential that candidates address their concerns and priorities. We are committed to continuing our work with our partners across the country to advance the priorities of the 64 million Latinos living in the United States.”
“In the past Latino voters were seen as affecting only a small handful of states, from Cuban Americans in Florida, Puerto Ricans in New York, to Mexican Americans in Texas, California and the southwest. However, today, with the ever-expanding dispersion of Latinos in the United States, and with this election being so close, a very small percentage of votes can and will make the difference in battleground states,” said Luis A. Miranda, Jr., Chair of Latino Victory. “Of the seven battleground states surveyed, more than 70 percent of the registered Latino electorate is almost certain they will vote on November 5. VP Harris is ahead by double digits, but former president Trump doesn’t need a majority of our vote; just enough to swing a state.”
“This is the most comprehensive survey of Latino voters we are going to see in October 2024 and it tells a clear story that Latino voters are paying attention, increasing their enthusiasm about the election, and ready to vote in record numbers,” stated Matt Barreto, Founding Partner and President, BSP Research. “The survey makes clear that the transition from Biden to Harris on the Democratic ticket did create a wave of excitement and support among Latino voters. Harris continues to see increases in her favorability and support numbers as compared to August and it is clear that Latino voters can cast the deciding votes in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and more.”
“Real, accurate and thorough research about Latino voters and their priorities, are essential for campaigns and other stakeholders to craft policies that address the real needs and concerns of constituents. In the past, research focused on Latino voters – particularly in swing states, has been grossly misguided and incomplete, and sampling is often too small to yield any accurate, reliable data in proportion to real, up-to-date Latino voter demographics. That’s why we have made it a priority at Latino Victory to focus the lens on Latino communities nationwide, to ensure that Latino voters are understood as a major political force in as many specific ways as possible. I thank the Hispanic Federation for partnering with us in this historic initiative,” said Sindy Benavides, President and CEO of Latino Victory Foundation.
Click here to access the full poll results
Additional key takeaways from the poll include:
- 71% of registered Latino voters are almost certain they will vote in the 2024 Presidential election, and that has remained consistent since our poll in August.
- Harris emergence has generated growing enthusiasm across key segments of the Latino electorate, with 60% of respondents replying that they are more interested in voting due to Vice President Harris entering the presidential election
- New excitement is especially true for younger, and more Spanish speaking Latinos
- Cost of living and inflation remains the top issue by a large margin for Latinos in battleground states: 59% cited as top issue
- Jobs (38%) and housing costs and affordability (32%), rank high after inflation for Latino swing state voters
- Outside of economic concerns, one in four Latinos in battleground states cited abortion and reproductive rights as a top priority issue
- Other concerns of significance for Latinos in swing states were gun violence (20%), U.S.-Mexico border issues (16%), and access to affordable health care (15%)
- A clear majority (64%) of Latinos in battleground states are reporting contact with campaigns and Latino civic organizations to encourage them to vote.
- In a combined 2-way vote, Harris led former President Donald Trump by 28 points in the 7 battleground states, a four point increase from our last survey in August, with 62% of registered Latino voters in battleground states indicating that they’ll vote for Harris compared to 34% for Trump.
Methodology:
On behalf of Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory Foundation BSP Research interviewed 1900 Latino registered voters across 8 critical states from October 2-10, 2024. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent. Voters were randomly contacted by live telephone, text message invite, or online panel all matched to the voter file. All respondents confirmed that they were Latino, and currently registered to vote. Post-stratification weights were added to balance the data to match known census and voter file estimates of Latino demographics including gender, age, education, and place of birth. The full sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3%.
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About Hispanic Federation:
Hispanic Federation (HF) is a nonprofit membership and advocacy organization, founded in 1990, committed to empowering and advancing the Hispanic community, with a focus on low-income, marginalized and immigrant Latinos. With programs in 40 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia, HF’s focus areas include immigration, economic empowerment, civic engagement, disaster relief, philanthropy, education, health, and the environment. HF also maintains ongoing public education campaigns and meets the organizational development needs of its member agencies through grant-making and capacity-building assistance.
About Latino Victory:
Latino Victory Foundation is a 501(c)(3) organization that works to empower the Latino community and build our next generation of leaders by engaging in research, non-partisan civic engagement, strategic communications and leadership development.
